Mortality Improvement Models After the Pandemic
Recalibrating Lee-Carter in a world with a structural break
Jul 23, 2026 · 2 min read
Abstract
The pandemic years put a discontinuity into every national mortality series that stochastic improvement models were never designed to absorb. This paper examines how the Lee-Carter family behaves when 2020-2022 data is included naively, compares exclusion, dummy-variable, and regime-switching treatments, and offers practical guidance for pricing and reserving actuaries who must choose a treatment now.
Sign in to continue reading
The full text of this paper, along with PDF downloads and bookmarks, is free with an account.
Related reading
Reserving Under IFRS 17: A Field Guide
IFRS 17 replaced familiar deferral-and-matching reserving with a model built on fulfilment cash flows and a contractual service margin. This guide walks through the general measurement model step by step with a worked single-cohort example, focusing on the mechanics practitioners actually get wrong: risk adjustment placement, CSM unlocking, and the treatment of onerous groups.
Meera Krishnan and Daniel Okafor · Jun 28, 2026 · 2 min read