Kasyap KVS

Mortality Improvement Models After the Pandemic

The pandemic years put a discontinuity into every national mortality series that stochastic improvement models were never designed to absorb. This paper examines how the Lee-Carter family behaves when 2020-2022 data is included naively, compares exclusion, dummy-variable, and regime-switching treatments, and offers practical guidance for pricing and reserving actuaries who must choose a treatment now.